Right, I don’t think that’s the part that’s informative post counterintuitive. It’s the claim he makes “if someone offers you a bet 70% chance to win a dollar, 30% loss, it’s better not to take it in some cases” is what is counterintuitive to people. It doesn’t seem counterintuitive to me that repeatedly making an all-or-nothing bet with a non-zero chance of losing will eventually cause my expected value of capital to go to zero. Which coincidentally also maximizes expected log wins.

From the sensitivity analysis, it appears that rebalancing frequently, i.e., each week, both the Kelly and the Tangent portfolios is not wise. Moreover, the optimization works at its best if the window width is large 2 years and with daily rebalancing. Again, we can notice that mean and standard deviation increase as the bet size increases. This result is consistent with the previous simulations. The full Kelly has the highest median value of the final wealth, whilst the corresponding result for the Triple Kelly is lower than the initial wealth. The probability that the final wealth is below the initial one decreases considerably compared to the previous two simulations except for the Triple Kelly.

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Some football bettors consider this betting method to be a valuable tool to estimate the amount they should stake, while other bettors think it is useless. This is true in the sense that the probability tends to 100% as the number of bets tends to infinity. But this doesn’t make Kelly optimal, because in the event that the Kelly isn’t ahead the expected utility of the other strategy could be much higher than Kelly. So by induction you are always going to bet the same proportion no matter how many bets you have to make, and this proportion is different from Kelly.

Markov Chain As Market Predictor

It looks like some of the ways in which the 8 criteria don’t hold Bettor Turns $20 Into $47k On Football Parlay are reasons to bet less than Kelly (e.g. 7, 8) and others are reasons to bet more than Kelly (e.g. 1, 2, 6). I’m not sure why you come down so strongly on not betting more than Kelly . At some cost you can usually earn money and move money into the bankroll.

According to Ziemba , the relationship between bet size and edge is linear in nature where as the one between bet size and odds or probability is clearly non-linear. Even the best odds (80% chance of winning) and a reasonable edge (1.4) lead to a bet size of 2/3 of your capital. Remember under Kelly the objective is to not maximize expected payoff but growth in capital. Growth in capital over multiple bets or seasons has a central condition – survival. If you have nothing left to bet, if you have depleted your capital, you are out of the game. If we treat a trading strategy as a multiperiod game with the rate of growth of wealth as the objective that needs to be maximized, what is our best way forward?

You’re welcome to reach out to us on with your feedback and opinions. If you understand how to use the Kelly criterion in football betting, it’s hands-down the best finance method. It’s an easy method to perfectly take advantage of good wagering opportunities, which leads to profits in the long run. The more observant of our readers probably observed a few issues here. To start with, the Kelly requirement just works with positive value bets.

Why Is This Strategy Called “kelly”?

If the dice bias were less, at 53%, the Kelly criterion recommends staking 6%. An investment portfolio is a set of financial assets owned by an investor that may include bonds, stocks, currencies, cash and cash equivalents, and commodities. Further, it refers to a group of investments that an investor uses in order to earn a profit while making sure that capital or assets are preserved.

Kelly Formula For Calculating Stake Size

His specialties are gambling mathematics and creating winning betting strategies. The recommended Kelly criterion stake will be multiplied by this value. For standard Kelly betting, set the fractional Kelly betting value to 1.00. If you want to be more conservative than the Kelly criterion, enter a value less than 1 (e.g. input 0.5 if you want to wager 50% of the stake recommended by the Kelly criterion). The formula is used by investors who want to trade with the objective of growing capital, and it assumes that the investor will reinvest profits and put them at risk for future trades.

In mathematics, when you derive a theorem or equation, then it holds. You cannot ignore the relationship between its variables on the basis of emotion, opinion or religion as suggested. You can, however, challenge the assumptions and steps of your derivation. It is a brilliant way of betting but knowing the “true” odds or real edge is vital and rarely achievable.